New Australia face the ghost of Christmas past

The status quo of Australian dominance has been established and adhered to almost unremittingly for a good decade now. What has changed over that period is the team which has looked likeliest to knock them off their perch: in the late 90s it was South Africa, who had bowling fire from Donald and Pollock, Afrikaaner grit in the shape of Kirsten, Kallis and McMillan and the inspirational leadership of the then untarnished and much loved Hansie Cronje. Yet in the first 18 Tests post-readmission they managed just 4 victories, doing no better than a pair of drawn series home and away in 1993-4. England did manage to produce a rare victory over the Australians in 2005, but their worth as rivals can be measured by the result in the subsequent series.

By far their most interesting challengers have been India. The teams of Mark Taylor and Steven Waugh suffered a trio of series losses there in the late 90s and 2000; it was dubbed as the "final frontier" for Waugh in 2000-1, the last place left for him and his to conquer. Eventually they did, in an insipid affair four years on, but Waugh could only, Moses-like, watch on from afar. But as much as the series three seasons ago failed to excite, the series preceding it were awe-inspiring, sitting alongside the 2005 Ashes as recent encounters for the ages. There was the great Indian revival in 2001 at Kolkata; the epoch-making all-day partnership between Laxman and Dravid; Harbhajan's 13 wickets; the Australian captain bitten and forever scared of again enforcing the follow-on. Back on Australian soil next time around it was the series of the bat; double-centuries all-round and mammoth totals not precluding breathtaking and tense cricket. Australia may boast forever about last winter's reverse of England's dominant position at Adelaide, but it was India who showed them the way, winning the Test there in late 2003 after the Australians had posted 550 first up. Ponting had over 200 of those, yet still lost; not to be denied, he got 257 more next game and this time won. An epic struggle climaxed in a momentous occasion at Sydney, featuring Waugh's farewell, Tendulkar's defiance of his bad form and ultimately a worthy stalemate. Four years on, it still resonates.

Hardly surprising then that the forthcoming series, beginning with the traditional Boxing Day game at Melbourne, should at least create a frisson of anticipation, even if it is muted in comparison to the grandstanding which preceded the previous encounters. On paper, there should be no contest: India are in a transient phase, caught between the titans of the previous generations and the thrusters of this one, led by a short-term captain and with several of their mainstays in questionable form. Australia, on the other hand, have won all but one of their 16 Test matches since England's summer in 2005 and are knocking on the door of the record for consecutive victories set by Waugh's Australia. Yet, convincing as their mini-series victory over Sri Lanka last month was, they still have a way to go before assuaging the doubts over their new-age team sans Warne and McGrath. Taking into account recent history, the makers of which are still numerate on both sides, if any team can probe the fissures, surely it is India.

Australia's batsmen are almost certain to make good runs, so it will be when India's take guard that the games will be decided. They have the clout to make Australia's green-tinged attack suffer, especially in the absence of Stuart MacGill. The home selectors are in a quandary over whether to bring in the next man down on the spinning list or draft in a fourth paceman in Shaun Tait. Going in without a slow bowler is always a risk, especially considering the current state of Australian pitches and India's batting stock, but there remains the thought that the wristy nous of those Indian bats would devour Hogg, who has an exemplary ODI record but averages the best part of 40 with the ball in first-class cricket. In Tendulkar and Dravid they have two batsmen of the highest talent and experience, recent form dips notwithstanding. Behind them come Ganguly, in the form of his life; the destructive Yuvraj, hard to drop after his century in their last Test and a man by the name of Vangipurappu Venkata Sai Laxman (remember the name). Laxman is one the Australians fear - he defied them with his epic 281 at Kolkata and averaged over 80 in the 2003-4 series. India should bat him at 3, where he has performed best and will carry the greatest presence, a move which would also take pressure off Draivd. Another who has worried the Australians before is Virender Sehwag, who sneaked into the touring party through the back-door but may well start anyway and probably should. Better they throw their best at the Australian's than die wondering with the likes of Karthik and Gambhir.

Pace bowling will be a crucial factor on both sides and could be the sole leaning of Australia's attack. They have a significant edge in the department, with Brett Lee looking sharp against Sri Lanka and Mitchell Johnson making a good impression. Still, they will be tested, and whatever combination they decide on, two of the four will have single-figure Test experience. India have plenty of options, although the excitable Sreesanth will not be one of them. Zaheer Khan is the pack-leader, although whether it will be RP Singh, Irfan Pathan or Ishant Sharma to back him up is up for debate. Anil Kumble should enjoy the bounce in the Australian pitches and has had some success there previously, with a pair of five-wicket hauls last time out. Harbhajan is another who has a happy history against the Australians, albeit almost exclusively at home, and is the only option as a second spinner, although that is an unlikely balance.

As ever, the collective dollar is on the Australians; India have the players to effect an upset, but probably not the bowlers and they will need a bolter amongst their secondary seamers if they are to win. More than anything, cricket needs a real hum-dinger, just as these sides have produced twice already this decade. Australians are starting to think it's all a bit too easy, and the rest of the world will watch on, hoping that the dying embers of a special generation of Indian cricketers can leave the dominant Aussies shaken and the collective melting pot stirred.