Floating England have their wings clipped.

The Butterfly effect (or chaos theory if you will): Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? The Wikipedia definition is: Small variations of the initial condition that may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. Sitting pretty at 101-2, with overs and wickets aplenty in hand, Ian Bell's bat, having already been grounded at the non-striker's end, bounced a millimetre of the dusty turf. No significant moment, you might think. A moment however, significant enough to see him freakishly dismissed, with Pietersen's bullying straight drive deflected onto the stumps at his end. Bell's bat bounced, and the ensuing earthquake not only removed him, but also blew away the power trio of Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff, who fell like drunk men trying to balance one-footed on a moving pedalo.

A thrilling stand followed, with seasoned warrior Paul Nixon, who became the second member of this England team to reverse-sweep the best spinner in the world for six, accompanying young Ravi Bopara, who sports a greater growth of hair on his chin than "the badger" does on his gleaming pate. But it was not enough; Dilhara Fernando, with 3 needed of his last ball, dummied his first attempt, saw which way Bopara was heading, and castled him with the next. It was a brave effort, and showed why England have placed so much faith in Bopara, despite his inexperience.

But it should not have been down to him. Once again, the openers tanked, with Ed Joyce caught cold and cumbersome by Malinga, although the strangle of Vaughan was fortuitous, both in the unsual mode of dismissal, and the extent to which umpire Billy Bowden felt sure he could detect an edge, while detailed forensic analysis failed to reach a satisfactory conclusion. Kevin Pietersen played in his usual domineering way, adding a useful 90 with Bell, despite some frenetic and ill-judged running. Although recently given the title of No.1 one-day batsman in the world, as much as teams rightly fear the hulking South African, they can rest safely in the knowledge that he will get himself out somewhere between 50 and 70. The champion innings would have been to see his team home, no great ask in terms of run rate for a man like Pietersen. Evidently he knew better, and perished trying to show Murali who was boss; unfortunately for him, the great twirler has seen many an idiot try to dictate terms to him, with the result invariably going only one way. Even more unfortunately for England, the return of Pietersen to the dressing room heralded as it so often does the raising of the white flag. Flintoff fell to a flat flooted swipe against a slower ball, the sort of shot which makes his pedalo antics look bright, and for once Collingwood was not the man for the job, his shuffling feet caught flat on the crease by a Malinga in-dipper.

Earlier, England had actually bolwed quite well; James Anderson was skilful and luckless with the new ball, Sajid Mahmood the opposite, although the dismissal of Kumar Sangakkara with a wide slower ball full-toss was cunningly conceived. Only captain Jayawerdene really got going, his half-century coming at nearly a run a ball, with his off-side play especially pleasing on the eye. Although Panesar had a rare off-day, Collingwood recovered well from some early tap, and Flintoff twice did the exact job asked, removing Upul Tharanga, just as he was starting to cut loose mid innings, and then returning at the end to slip one of his inch perfect yorkers past Chamara Silva, also nailing the dangerous Vaas. The effort in the field was also a cut above; Bopara and Collingwood were tireless, a stiff neck not preventing the latter from taking a trademark diving catch at backward point off Vaas, while Ian Bell's diving save and throw down of the stumps turned a likely boundary into a wicket.

If only England had been as upbeat in their batting display; the two excellent partnerships which accounted for the majority of the runs just failing to mask the two critical collapses. Nevertheless, England can take much from this defeat, although not the crucial two points. Australia on Sunday is now a win or bust situation, and they must respond by going for broke. Pietersen proved today that the new ball does not trouble him, and warrants promotion to No.3, with Ian Bell opening alongside the captain, who one hopes will be inspired by Australian opposition against which he has often thrived. Andrew Strauss should then come in at 4, with Ed Joyce dropping out. Otherwise, the remainder of the team all deserve to retain their places.

It is hard not to feel that England have blown their big chance; they twice had Sri Lanka on the rack, and we will never now know whether one more Bopara boundary would have created a wave to carry England through to the semis. What we do know is that it will take one hell of a momumental performance against Australia on Sunday. Same tactics as today; bowl first, take early wickets and expose the undercooked Australian middle-order. The attack they will face on Sunday is not half of what they had to deal with today; Shaun Tait is a mere pimple on the Malinga-scale, while Nathan Bracken is an equally pale imitation of Chaminda Vaas. But that is more than made up for by a batting line-up which is twice as good as what anyone else has to offer. Glenn McGrath, in his last match against England, has predicted that the Poms will be no problem; he's probably right - but then it would be really good to rub his nose in it one more time.